Actual result
D+16.4
Final polls said
D+12.4
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+11.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kimball Political Consulting | D+14.1 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Digital Research | D+19.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Pan Atlantic Research | D+20.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+11.1 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+25.0 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | Maine People's Resource Center | D+4.0 | 12.4 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine People's Resource Center | 2012-11-02 | 436 | D+4.0 | 12 |
| Kimball Political Consulting | 2012-10-30 | 825 | D+14.1 | 2 |
| Digital Research | 2012-10-30 | 325 | D+19.0 | 3 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2012-10-08 | 400 | D+25.0 | 9 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2012-09-26 | 202 | D+20.0 | 4 |
| Maine People's Resource Center | 2012-09-16 | 410 | D+19.0 | 3 |
| Digital Research | 2012-09-14 | 326 | D+15.0 | 1 |