Actual result
R+8.4
Final polls said
R+6.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+8.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+8.3 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | GQR | R+4.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+14.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Glengariff Group | D+1.0 | 9.4 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2012-10-20 | 400 | R+14.0 | 6 |
| Glengariff Group | 2012-10-17 | 400 | D+1.0 | 9 |
| GQR | 2012-10-08 | 400 | R+4.0 | 4 |