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Toss-up · 2012 House
Montana House
In the 2012 Montana House race, Steve Daines (R) won by about 11 points.
Actual result
R+10.5
Final polls said
R+7.5
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+11.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Montana State University Billings | R+13.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | R+4.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Mellman Group | R+2.0 | 8.5 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
7 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Public Policy Polling2012-11-027
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2012-10-300
Public Policy Polling2012-10-092
Montana State University Billings2012-09-292
Mellman Group2012-09-259
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2012 Montana House race?
Steve Daines (R) won, by about 10.5 points (R+10.5).
When was the 2012 Montana House election held?
It was held in November 2012.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.