Actual result
R+10.5
Final polls said
R+7.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+8.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+11.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+8.5 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Montana State University Billings | R+13.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Policy Polling | R+4.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Mellman Group | R+2.0 | 8.5 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-02 | 836 | R+4.0 | 7 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2012-10-30 | 625 | R+11.0 | 0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-09 | 737 | R+9.0 | 2 |
| Montana State University Billings | 2012-09-29 | 477 | R+13.0 | 2 |
| Mellman Group | 2012-09-25 | 600 | R+2.0 | 9 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2012-09-18 | 625 | R+8.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-10 | 656 | R+3.0 | 8 |