Actual result
R+17.4
Final polls said
R+20.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+21.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | R+20.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+21.2 | 3.9 | ✓ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | 2012-09-21 | 624 | R+20.0 | 3 |