Actual result
R+18.2
Final polls said
R+18.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+21.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Research & Polling Inc. | R+18.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+21.6 | 3.4 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2012-10-24 | 113 | R+18.0 | 0 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2012-10-10 | 116 | R+24.0 | 6 |