Actual result
R+7.5
Final polls said
R+10.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+12.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benenson Strategy Group | R+5.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+10.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Global Strategy Group | R+4.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | WPA Intelligence | R+11.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | R+12.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-22 | 502 | R+10.0 | 3 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2012-10-07 | 400 | R+11.0 | 4 |
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2012-10-02 | 400 | R+5.0 | 2 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2012-09-29 | 405 | R+4.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-09-11 | 663 | R+13.0 | 6 |