Actual result
D+9.3
Final polls said
D+1.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+3.5
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siena College | D+13.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/McLaughlin & Associates | R+3.0 | 12.3 | ✗ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+3.5 | 12.8 | ✗ |
| 4 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+5.0 | 14.3 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2012-10-14 | 400 | R+5.0 | 14 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/McLaughlin & Associates | 2012-10-10 | 400 | R+3.0 | 12 |
| Siena College | 2012-09-07 | 624 | D+13.0 | 4 |