Actual result
D+6.5
Final polls said
R+7.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+7.6
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | EVEN | 6.5 | ✗ |
| 2 | Global Strategy Group | R+2.0 | 8.4 | ✗ |
| 3 | Siena College | R+7.0 | 13.4 | ✗ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+7.6 | 14.0 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | 2012-10-16 | 615 | R+7.0 | 13 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2012-10-06 | 403 | R+2.0 | 8 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-19 | 602 | EVEN | 6 |
| Siena College | 2012-09-14 | 628 | R+13.0 | 19 |