Actual result
R+0.8
Final polls said
R+7.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+9.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grove Insight | R+2.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Siena College | R+5.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | OnMessage Inc. | R+8.0 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+9.3 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+10.0 | 9.2 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | 2012-10-27 | 649 | R+5.0 | 4 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2012-10-24 | 400 | R+10.0 | 9 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2012-10-09 | 400 | R+11.0 | 10 |
| Grove Insight | 2012-10-06 | 400 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2012-09-30 | 400 | R+8.0 | 7 |
| Siena College | 2012-09-17 | 635 | R+16.0 | 15 |