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Toss-up · 2012 House
New York House
In the 2012 New York House race, Christopher P. Gibson (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
R+0.8
Final polls said
R+7.5
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grove Insight | R+2.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Siena College | R+5.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | OnMessage Inc. | R+8.0 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+10.0 | 9.2 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Siena College2012-10-274
Public Opinion Strategies2012-10-249
Public Opinion Strategies2012-10-0910
Grove Insight2012-10-061
OnMessage Inc.2012-09-307
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2012 New York House race?
Christopher P. Gibson (R) won, by about 0.8 points (R+0.8).
When was the 2012 New York House election held?
It was held in November 2012.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.