Actual result
D+5.0
Final polls said
D+3.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+2.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global Strategy Group | D+7.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+2.7 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+2.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Siena College | D+1.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | 2012-10-29 | 629 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2012-10-24 | 400 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2012-10-22 | 403 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2012-10-01 | 400 | D+5.0 | 0 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2012-10-01 | 400 | D+14.0 | 9 |