Actual result
D+9.3
Final polls said
D+1.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+0.1
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grove Insight | D+8.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Lake Research Partners | D+2.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Siena College | EVEN | 9.3 | ✗ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+0.1 | 9.4 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | 2012-11-01 | 670 | EVEN | 9 |
| Lake Research Partners | 2012-10-16 | 425 | D+2.0 | 7 |
| Grove Insight | 2012-09-23 | 400 | D+8.0 | 1 |
| Siena College | 2012-09-07 | 625 | EVEN | 9 |