Actual result
D+18.4
Final polls said
D+10.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+7.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siena College | D+10.0 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | GBAO | D+10.0 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+7.5 | 10.9 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | 2012-10-29 | 624 | D+10.0 | 8 |
| GBAO | 2012-10-17 | 400 | D+10.0 | 8 |
| Siena College | 2012-10-09 | 800 | D+5.0 | 13 |
| Siena College | 2012-09-25 | 634 | D+10.0 | 8 |