Actual result
D+0.8
Final polls said
R+1.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+3.3
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siena College | R+1.0 | 1.8 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+3.3 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 3 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+7.0 | 7.8 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | 2012-10-31 | 636 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2012-10-10 | 400 | R+7.0 | 8 |
| Siena College | 2012-10-03 | 633 | EVEN | 1 |