Actual result
D+32.9
Final polls said
D+3.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+2.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McLaughlin & Associates | D+3.0 | 29.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+2.9 | 30.1 | ✓ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2012-10-17 | 300 | D+3.0 | 30 |