Actual result
R+28.7
Final polls said
R+21.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+23.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+27.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+23.6 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Dan Jones & Associates | R+16.0 | 12.7 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2012-10-30 | 625 | R+27.0 | 2 |
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2012-10-29 | 229 | R+16.0 | 13 |