Actual result
R+12.3
Final polls said
R+6.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+9.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+11.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+9.6 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | R+4.0 | 8.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | FM3 Research | R+3.0 | 9.3 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2012-09-30 | 400 | R+11.0 | 1 |
| FM3 Research | 2012-09-25 | 509 | R+3.0 | 9 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-24 | 694 | R+4.0 | 8 |