Actual result
R+7.8
Final polls said
R+7.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+10.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | R+8.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+8.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Abt Associates | R+8.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | 20/20 Insight | R+6.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | R+10.6 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | InsiderAdvantage | R+21.0 | 13.2 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 1070 | R+8.0 | 0 |
| 20/20 Insight | 2012-10-31 | 1316 | R+6.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-27 | 574 | R+8.0 | 0 |
| Abt Associates | 2012-10-10 | 706 | R+8.0 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 777 | R+8.0 | 0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2012-09-17 | 483 | R+21.0 | 13 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 1020 | R+7.0 | 1 |