Actual result
D+42.7
Final polls said
D+27.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+32.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+32.2 | 10.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | MRG Research | D+27.0 | 15.7 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRG Research | 2012-10-26 | 1218 | D+27.0 | 16 |
| MRG Research | 2012-10-25 | 1218 | D+27.0 | 16 |
| MRG Research | 2012-09-27 | 1648 | D+32.0 | 11 |