Actual result
R+10.2
Final polls said
R+11.8
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+13.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Howey Politics/DePauw University | R+10.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+9.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+13.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | R+7.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | R+13.4 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Global Strategy Group | R+6.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
Polls (12)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 768 | R+7.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-11-01 | 600 | R+9.0 | 1 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2012-10-31 | 600 | R+13.0 | 3 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2012-10-29 | 600 | R+18.0 | 8 |
| Howey Politics/DePauw University | 2012-10-29 | 800 | R+10.0 | 0 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2012-10-24 | 600 | R+14.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-10 | 600 | R+13.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 495 | R+12.0 | 2 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2012-10-03 | 600 | R+16.0 | 6 |
| Howey Politics/DePauw University | 2012-09-21 | 800 | R+12.0 | 2 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2012-09-11 | 800 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 658 | R+5.0 | 5 |