Actual result
R+17.2
Final polls said
R+17.4
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+18.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+18.3 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Clarus Research Group | R+16.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Zogby Analytics | R+13.2 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Magellan Strategies | R+23.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Southern Media & Opinion Research | R+5.7 | 11.5 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clarus Research Group | 2012-10-06 | 602 | R+16.0 | 1 |
| Magellan Strategies | 2012-10-03 | 2682 | R+23.0 | 6 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2012-09-29 | 412 | R+13.2 | 4 |
| Southern Media & Opinion Research | 2012-09-15 | 600 | R+5.7 | 12 |