Actual result
D+15.3
Final polls said
D+10.4
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+12.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pan Atlantic Research | D+14.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | D+13.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+12.4 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+12.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Maine People's Resource Center | D+11.1 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Digital Research | D+7.0 | 8.3 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine People's Resource Center | 2012-11-02 | 905 | D+11.1 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-01 | 1633 | D+13.0 | 2 |
| Digital Research | 2012-10-30 | 613 | D+7.0 | 8 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2012-09-26 | 400 | D+14.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-09-25 | 500 | D+12.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-17 | 804 | D+16.0 | 1 |
| Maine People's Resource Center | 2012-09-16 | 856 | D+16.2 | 1 |
| Digital Research | 2012-09-14 | 618 | D+16.0 | 1 |