Actual result
R+13.7
Final polls said
R+9.0
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+11.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana State University Billings | R+14.5 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+11.1 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+10.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+10.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Mellman Group | R+8.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Public Policy Polling | R+7.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-02 | 836 | R+7.0 | 7 |
| Mellman Group | 2012-10-30 | 800 | R+8.0 | 6 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2012-10-30 | 625 | R+10.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-29 | 500 | R+10.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-15 | 806 | R+10.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-14 | 500 | R+8.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-09 | 737 | R+10.0 | 4 |
| Montana State University Billings | 2012-09-29 | 477 | R+14.5 | 1 |
| Mellman Group | 2012-09-25 | 600 | R+4.0 | 10 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2012-09-18 | 625 | R+9.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-10 | 656 | R+3.0 | 11 |