Actual result
R+19.6
Final polls said
R+14.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+17.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+17.2 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+14.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+14.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | DFM Research | R+12.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2012-10-27 | 625 | R+14.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-17 | 600 | R+14.0 | 6 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2012-10-04 | 625 | R+14.0 | 6 |
| DFM Research | 2012-09-26 | 600 | R+12.0 | 8 |