Actual result
D+12.1
Final polls said
D+6.2
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+8.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+8.1 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | DHM Research | D+7.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+7.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Policy Polling | D+6.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elway Research | D+6.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Hoffman Research Group | D+5.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-31 | 921 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| DHM Research | 2012-10-27 | 500 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| Elway Research | 2012-10-27 | 405 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Hoffman Research Group | 2012-10-24 | 615 | D+5.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-17 | 579 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-09-12 | 552 | D+9.0 | 3 |