Actual result
D+14.9
Final polls said
D+12.3
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+15.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | D+14.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+14.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+15.8 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Strategies 360 | D+13.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+13.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | Elway Research | D+17.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | Gravis Marketing | D+17.8 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | University of Washington Center for Survey Research | D+20.7 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | Public Policy Polling | D+7.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
Polls (17)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 837 | D+14.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-02 | 932 | D+7.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-30 | 555 | D+14.0 | 1 |
| University of Washington Center for Survey Research | 2012-10-24 | 632 | D+20.7 | 6 |
| Strategies 360 | 2012-10-19 | 500 | D+13.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-15 | 574 | D+5.0 | 10 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-14 | 500 | D+13.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-13 | 543 | D+14.0 | 1 |
| University of Washington Center for Survey Research | 2012-10-09 | 644 | D+9.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 748 | D+17.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-09-29 | 540 | D+20.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-09-26 | 500 | D+11.0 | 4 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-09-21 | 625 | D+17.8 | 3 |
| Elway Research | 2012-09-11 | 405 | D+17.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 880 | D+14.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-08 | 563 | D+11.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-09-08 | 524 | D+16.0 | 1 |