Actual result
D+12.5
Final polls said
D+4.4
10 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+3.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+9.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+6.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Penta | D+6.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | EMC Research | D+6.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Quinnipiac University | D+6.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | University of Connecticut | D+6.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | SurveyUSA | D+4.0 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | VotePredictor | D+3.6 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | YouGov | D+2.0 | 10.5 | ✓ |
| 10 | Siena College | D+2.0 | 10.5 | ✓ |
| 11 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | EVEN | 12.5 | ✗ |
| 12 | National Research | R+3.0 | 15.5 | ✗ |
Polls (19)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 895 | D+2.0 | 10 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-01 | 1220 | D+9.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-28 | 500 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Penta | 2012-10-23 | 400 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-21 | 500 | D+1.0 | 11 |
| EMC Research | 2012-10-21 | 800 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2012-10-21 | 1412 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-20 | 575 | D+4.0 | 8 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2012-10-16 | 625 | EVEN | 12 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-15 | 1015 | D+4.0 | 8 |
| University of Connecticut | 2012-10-13 | 574 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Siena College | 2012-10-09 | 552 | D+2.0 | 10 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 434 | D+2.0 | 10 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-07 | 500 | D+5.0 | 7 |
| National Research | 2012-10-01 | 600 | R+3.0 | 15 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2012-09-30 | 1696 | R+1.0 | 13 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-25 | 801 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| University of Connecticut | 2012-09-13 | 517 | D+4.0 | 8 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 634 | R+4.0 | 16 |