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Toss-up · 2012 Senate
Connecticut Senate
In the 2012 Connecticut Senate race, Christopher Murphy (D) won by about 12 points.
Actual result
D+11.8
Final polls said
D+4.4
10 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+9.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+6.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Penta | D+6.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | EMC Research | D+6.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Quinnipiac University | D+6.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | University of Connecticut | D+6.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | SurveyUSA | D+4.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | YouGov | D+2.0 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | Siena College | D+2.0 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 10 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | EVEN | 11.8 | ✗ |
| 11 | National Research | R+3.0 | 14.8 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
19 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
YouGov2012-11-0210
Public Policy Polling2012-11-013
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2012-10-286
Penta2012-10-236
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2012-10-2111
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2012 Connecticut Senate race?
Christopher Murphy (D) won, by about 11.8 points (D+11.8).
When was the 2012 Connecticut Senate election held?
It was held in November 2012.