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Toss-up · 2012 Senate
Connecticut Senate
In the 2012 Connecticut Senate race, Christopher Murphy (D) won by about 12 points.
Actual result
D+12.5
Final polls said
D+4.4
10 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+9.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+6.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Penta | D+6.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | EMC Research | D+6.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Quinnipiac University | D+6.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | University of Connecticut | D+6.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | SurveyUSA | D+4.0 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | YouGov | D+2.0 | 10.5 | ✓ |
| 9 | Siena College | D+2.0 | 10.5 | ✓ |
| 10 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | EVEN | 12.5 | ✗ |
| 11 | National Research | R+3.0 | 15.5 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
19 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
YouGov2012-11-0210
Public Policy Polling2012-11-013
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2012-10-286
Penta2012-10-236
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2012-10-2111
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2012 Connecticut Senate race?
Christopher Murphy (D) won, by about 12.5 points (D+12.5).
When was the 2012 Connecticut Senate election held?
It was held in November 2012.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.