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Toss-up · 2012 Senate
Massachusetts Senate
In the 2012 Massachusetts Senate race, Elizabeth Warren (D) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
D+7.5
Final polls said
D+4.0
11 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | D+7.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Suffolk University | D+7.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+6.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | MassINC Polling Group | D+6.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Harstad Strategic Research | D+6.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+5.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Western New England University Polling Institute | D+4.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | Opinion Dynamics | D+4.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 9 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | EVEN | 7.5 | ✗ |
| 10 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | R+1.0 | 8.5 | ✗ |
| 11 | Kimball Political Consulting | R+2.0 | 9.5 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
30 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
YouGov2012-11-020
University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion2012-11-028
Public Policy Polling2012-11-011
Kimball Political Consulting2012-10-319
Western New England University Polling Institute2012-10-293
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2012 Massachusetts Senate race?
Elizabeth Warren (D) won, by about 7.5 points (D+7.5).
When was the 2012 Massachusetts Senate election held?
It was held in November 2012.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.