Actual result
D+7.5
Final polls said
D+4.0
11 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+6.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | D+7.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Suffolk University | D+7.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+6.2 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Policy Polling | D+6.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | MassINC Polling Group | D+6.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Harstad Strategic Research | D+6.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+5.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | Western New England University Polling Institute | D+4.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 9 | Opinion Dynamics | D+4.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 10 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | EVEN | 7.5 | ✗ |
| 11 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | R+1.0 | 8.5 | ✗ |
| 12 | Kimball Political Consulting | R+2.0 | 9.5 | ✗ |
Polls (30)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 811 | D+7.0 | 0 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | 2012-11-02 | 800 | R+1.0 | 8 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-01 | 1089 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Kimball Political Consulting | 2012-10-31 | 761 | R+2.0 | 9 |
| Western New England University Polling Institute | 2012-10-29 | 535 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| Suffolk University | 2012-10-27 | 600 | D+7.0 | 0 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2012-10-26 | 583 | EVEN | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-25 | 500 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| MassINC Polling Group | 2012-10-21 | 516 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Kimball Political Consulting | 2012-10-20 | 761 | D+2.5 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-15 | 709 | D+9.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-10 | 500 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-10 | 1051 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 669 | D+7.0 | 0 |
| MassINC Polling Group | 2012-10-06 | 501 | R+3.0 | 10 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-05 | 436 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Harstad Strategic Research | 2012-10-03 | 602 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Western New England University Polling Institute | 2012-10-01 | 440 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| Opinion Dynamics | 2012-09-27 | 405 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| MassINC Polling Group | 2012-09-27 | 504 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-09-24 | 500 | EVEN | 7 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2012-09-24 | 502 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| Kimball Political Consulting | 2012-09-20 | 868 | R+1.0 | 8 |
| MassINC Polling Group | 2012-09-16 | 507 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-15 | 876 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | 2012-09-15 | 497 | R+4.0 | 11 |
| Suffolk University | 2012-09-15 | 600 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 817 | EVEN | 7 |
| Western New England University Polling Institute | 2012-09-10 | 444 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Kimball Political Consulting | 2012-09-08 | 756 | R+1.0 | 8 |