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Toss-up · 2012 Senate
Maryland Senate
In the 2012 Maryland Senate race, Benjamin L. Cardin (D) won by about 30 points.
Actual result
D+29.6
Final polls said
D+24.5
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+31.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. | D+28.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | OpinionWorks | D+26.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | D+23.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
YouGov2012-11-027
OpinionWorks2012-10-224
ABC News/The Washington Post2012-10-131
YouGov2012-10-086
Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc.2012-09-202
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2012 Maryland Senate race?
Benjamin L. Cardin (D) won, by about 29.6 points (D+29.6).
When was the 2012 Maryland Senate election held?
It was held in November 2012.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.