Actual result
D+29.6
Final polls said
D+24.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+27.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+31.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. | D+28.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+27.5 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | OpinionWorks | D+26.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | D+23.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 705 | D+23.0 | 7 |
| OpinionWorks | 2012-10-22 | 801 | D+26.0 | 4 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2012-10-13 | 679 | D+31.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 498 | D+24.0 | 6 |
| Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. | 2012-09-20 | 813 | D+28.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 686 | D+18.0 | 12 |