Actual result
R+17.5
Final polls said
R+23.1
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+23.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GS Strategy Group | R+16.5 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+19.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Digital Research | R+22.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Pan Atlantic Research | R+11.7 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Maine People's Resource Center | R+23.3 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | R+23.8 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | Public Policy Polling | R+24.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine People's Resource Center | 2012-11-02 | 905 | R+23.3 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-01 | 1633 | R+24.0 | 7 |
| Digital Research | 2012-10-30 | 613 | R+22.0 | 5 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2012-09-26 | 400 | R+11.7 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-09-25 | 500 | R+19.0 | 2 |
| GS Strategy Group | 2012-09-24 | 400 | R+16.5 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-17 | 804 | R+21.0 | 4 |
| Maine People's Resource Center | 2012-09-16 | 856 | R+13.3 | 4 |
| Digital Research | 2012-09-14 | 618 | R+16.0 | 1 |