Actual result
R+15.6
Final polls said
R+9.7
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+13.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+16.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+13.3 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | We Ask America | R+12.4 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Gravis Marketing | R+12.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Hickman Analytics | R+5.0 | 10.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | Wiese Research Associates | R+3.0 | 12.6 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| We Ask America | 2012-11-01 | 1178 | R+12.4 | 3 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-10-28 | 1168 | R+12.0 | 4 |
| Wiese Research Associates | 2012-10-24 | 650 | R+3.0 | 13 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2012-10-24 | 600 | R+16.0 | 0 |
| Hickman Analytics | 2012-10-15 | 600 | R+5.0 | 11 |
| Wiese Research Associates | 2012-09-19 | 656 | R+16.0 | 0 |