Actual result
R+1.2
Final polls said
R+3.3
9 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grove Insight | R+1.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | R+2.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | We Ask America | R+0.3 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Marist College | R+3.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Suffolk University | R+3.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | R+4.4 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+5.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+5.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | Mellman Group | D+3.0 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 10 | SurveyUSA | R+6.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 11 | Dane & Associates | R+6.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 12 | YouGov | R+9.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 13 | Gravis Marketing | R+16.7 | 15.5 | ✓ |
Polls (23)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-03 | 750 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 732 | R+9.0 | 8 |
| Grove Insight | 2012-10-27 | 500 | R+1.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-26 | 1212 | R+6.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-23 | 500 | R+5.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-23 | 636 | EVEN | 1 |
| Marist College | 2012-10-23 | 1042 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| Mellman Group | 2012-10-16 | 600 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-15 | 500 | R+7.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-13 | 806 | R+6.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-09 | 594 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| Mellman Group | 2012-10-09 | 600 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Dane & Associates | 2012-10-08 | 900 | R+6.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 358 | R+6.0 | 5 |
| Suffolk University | 2012-10-08 | 500 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-08 | 500 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-10-03 | 1006 | R+16.7 | 16 |
| We Ask America | 2012-09-26 | 1152 | R+0.3 | 1 |
| Marist College | 2012-09-24 | 984 | R+6.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-19 | 501 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2012-09-19 | 500 | R+5.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-09-18 | 500 | R+1.0 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 541 | R+6.0 | 5 |