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Toss-up · 2012 Senate
Nevada Senate
In the 2012 Nevada Senate race, Dean Heller (R) won by about 1 point.
Actual result
R+1.2
Final polls said
R+3.3
9 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grove Insight | R+1.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | R+2.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | We Ask America | R+0.3 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Marist College | R+3.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Suffolk University | R+3.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+5.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+5.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | Mellman Group | D+3.0 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 9 | SurveyUSA | R+6.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 10 | Dane & Associates | R+6.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 11 | YouGov | R+9.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 12 | Gravis Marketing | R+16.7 | 15.5 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
23 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Public Policy Polling2012-11-031
YouGov2012-11-028
Grove Insight2012-10-270
SurveyUSA2012-10-265
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2012-10-234
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2012 Nevada Senate race?
Dean Heller (R) won, by about 1.2 points (R+1.2).
When was the 2012 Nevada Senate election held?
It was held in November 2012.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.