Actual result
D+29.9
Final polls said
D+21.3
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+18.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brown University A. Alfred Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy | D+28.9 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Fleming & Associates | D+21.3 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+18.8 | 11.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | McLaughlin & Associates | D+8.0 | 21.9 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleming & Associates | 2012-10-26 | 601 | D+21.3 | 9 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2012-10-11 | 300 | D+8.0 | 22 |
| Brown University A. Alfred Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy | 2012-09-30 | 471 | D+28.9 | 1 |
| Fleming & Associates | 2012-09-28 | 501 | D+26.0 | 4 |