Actual result
D+10.9
Final polls said
D+11.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+19.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harper Polling | D+11.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | D+11.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+10.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Rasmussen Reports | D+12.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Quinnipiac University | D+14.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | D+16.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | D+19.4 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | D+22.0 | 11.1 | ✓ |
Polls (15)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harper Polling | 2013-10-14 | 778 | D+11.0 | 0 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2013-10-12 | 1696 | D+14.0 | 3 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2013-10-11 | 1393 | D+10.0 | 1 |
| Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | 2013-10-10 | 513 | D+22.0 | 11 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2013-10-07 | 1000 | D+12.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2013-10-06 | 899 | D+12.0 | 1 |
| Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | 2013-10-05 | 729 | D+11.0 | 0 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2013-10-02 | 702 | D+16.0 | 5 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2013-09-28 | 571 | D+13.0 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2013-09-21 | 948 | D+12.0 | 1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2013-09-19 | 1000 | D+19.0 | 8 |
| Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | 2013-09-18 | 812 | D+26.1 | 15 |
| Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | 2013-09-06 | 679 | D+35.0 | 24 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2013-08-24 | 679 | D+28.0 | 17 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2013-08-17 | 696 | D+16.0 | 5 |