Actual result
R+7.9
Final polls said
R+3.6
18 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+3.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hickman Analytics | R+8.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Vox Populi Polling | R+7.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Landmark Communications | R+6.3 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+6.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Rasmussen Reports | R+6.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | R+5.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | Marist College | R+5.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | Abt Associates | R+5.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | Public Policy Polling | R+4.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | YouGov | R+4.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 11 | VotePredictor | R+3.7 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 12 | InsiderAdvantage | R+3.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 13 | GaPundit.com | EVEN | 7.9 | ✗ |
| 14 | Big Village | D+2.0 | 9.9 | ✗ |
Polls (33)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-11-02 | 975 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| Landmark Communications | 2014-11-02 | 1500 | R+6.3 | 2 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2014-11-01 | 1463 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-11-01 | 591 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Landmark Communications | 2014-10-29 | 1500 | R+1.4 | 6 |
| Marist College | 2014-10-29 | 603 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Vox Populi Polling | 2014-10-28 | 602 | R+7.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-28 | 1743 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2014-10-27 | 436 | R+6.0 | 2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-10-26 | 977 | R+6.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-26 | 611 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-10-23 | 771 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| Big Village | 2014-10-21 | 565 | D+2.0 | 10 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2014-10-21 | 704 | D+0.1 | 8 |
| Landmark Communications | 2014-10-20 | 1000 | R+2.5 | 5 |
| Abt Associates | 2014-10-20 | 1170 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 1774 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-19 | 606 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| GaPundit.com | 2014-10-13 | 1543 | EVEN | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-12 | 563 | EVEN | 8 |
| Landmark Communications | 2014-10-08 | 1000 | EVEN | 8 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-10-04 | 895 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-04 | 566 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-09-30 | 1000 | R+6.0 | 2 |
| Hickman Analytics | 2014-09-30 | 500 | R+8.0 | 0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2014-09-30 | 947 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 1851 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-09-21 | 550 | D+1.0 | 9 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-09-15 | 750 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| Landmark Communications | 2014-09-10 | 1109 | D+3.0 | 11 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2014-09-10 | 1167 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| Abt Associates | 2014-09-10 | 884 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-09-07 | 558 | R+1.0 | 7 |