Actual result
D+12.4
Final polls said
D+11.0
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+9.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ward Research | D+12.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Global Strategy Group | D+12.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+9.9 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | MRG Research | D+6.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Tarrance Group | D+3.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Rasmussen Reports | D+1.0 | 11.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | YouGov | D+32.0 | 19.6 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarrance Group | 2014-10-22 | 800 | D+3.0 | 9 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 1002 | D+32.0 | 20 |
| MRG Research | 2014-10-18 | 1221 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Tarrance Group | 2014-10-16 | 800 | D+2.0 | 10 |
| Ward Research | 2014-10-15 | 605 | D+12.0 | 0 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2014-10-05 | 600 | D+12.0 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 1319 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| MRG Research | 2014-09-13 | 1055 | D+4.0 | 8 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-09-09 | 750 | D+1.0 | 11 |