Actual result
R+3.9
Final polls said
D+0.3
8 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+0.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ogden & Fry | R+3.5 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Communication Express | R+5.8 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | APC Research | R+2.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | University of Illinois Springfield Survey Research Office | R+2.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Southern Illinois University Paul Simon Public Policy Institute | R+1.7 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Rasmussen Reports | R+1.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | R+0.8 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 8 | Battleground Polling | EVEN | 3.9 | ✗ |
| 9 | Public Policy Polling | D+2.0 | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 10 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | D+2.0 | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 11 | McKeon & Associates | D+3.0 | 6.9 | ✗ |
| 12 | Global Strategy Group | D+3.0 | 6.9 | ✗ |
| 13 | YouGov | D+4.0 | 7.9 | ✗ |
| 14 | We Ask America | D+5.0 | 8.9 | ✗ |
Polls (20)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ogden & Fry | 2014-11-02 | 1051 | R+3.5 | 0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-11-01 | 1064 | D+2.0 | 6 |
| Ogden & Fry | 2014-11-01 | 1163 | R+4.8 | 1 |
| McKeon & Associates | 2014-10-28 | 823 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| We Ask America | 2014-10-27 | 2327 | D+5.0 | 9 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-10-21 | 1000 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 3519 | D+4.0 | 8 |
| APC Research | 2014-10-18 | 800 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| We Ask America | 2014-10-08 | 1051 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| We Ask America | 2014-10-06 | 1097 | D+4.0 | 8 |
| University of Illinois Springfield Survey Research Office | 2014-10-05 | 723 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Southern Illinois University Paul Simon Public Policy Institute | 2014-10-04 | 691 | R+1.7 | 2 |
| Communication Express | 2014-09-30 | 1208 | R+5.8 | 2 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 2014-09-28 | 600 | D+2.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 3955 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-09-24 | 750 | D+2.0 | 6 |
| Battleground Polling | 2014-09-23 | 408 | EVEN | 4 |
| We Ask America | 2014-09-18 | 1418 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| APC Research | 2014-09-07 | 800 | D+11.0 | 15 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2014-09-06 | 605 | D+3.0 | 7 |