Actual result
R+1.9
Final polls said
R+2.6
13 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+0.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kiley & Company | R+2.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Rasmussen Reports | R+2.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | MassINC Polling Group | R+1.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+0.7 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Suffolk University | R+3.4 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Public Policy Polling | R+4.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | R+4.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | GQR | D+1.0 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 9 | Western New England University Polling Institute | R+5.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 10 | Emerson College | R+6.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 11 | YouGov | D+3.0 | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 12 | SocialSphere | R+7.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
Polls (31)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-10-31 | 887 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2014-10-28 | 627 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| Suffolk University | 2014-10-28 | 500 | R+3.4 | 2 |
| SocialSphere | 2014-10-28 | 600 | R+7.0 | 5 |
| Western New England University Polling Institute | 2014-10-25 | 430 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-24 | 591 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| MassINC Polling Group | 2014-10-24 | 494 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Kiley & Company | 2014-10-23 | 1200 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | 2014-10-23 | 601 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| GQR | 2014-10-21 | 611 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| SocialSphere | 2014-10-20 | 400 | R+9.0 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 2218 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| MassINC Polling Group | 2014-10-17 | 501 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-10-14 | 980 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| SocialSphere | 2014-10-13 | 400 | EVEN | 2 |
| MassINC Polling Group | 2014-10-10 | 500 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| SocialSphere | 2014-10-06 | 400 | D+5.0 | 7 |
| Emerson College | 2014-10-06 | 500 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| MassINC Polling Group | 2014-10-03 | 504 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-29 | 414 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| SocialSphere | 2014-09-29 | 401 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Suffolk University | 2014-09-27 | 500 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| MassINC Polling Group | 2014-09-26 | 503 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 2389 | D+6.0 | 8 |
| Western New England University Polling Institute | 2014-09-24 | 416 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| SocialSphere | 2014-09-22 | 400 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-21 | 440 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| MassINC Polling Group | 2014-09-18 | 502 | D+10.0 | 12 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-09-16 | 750 | EVEN | 2 |
| SocialSphere | 2014-09-15 | 407 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| MassINC Polling Group | 2014-09-13 | 504 | D+9.0 | 11 |