Actual result
R+4.8
Final polls said
R+1.2
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+0.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Digital Research | R+3.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Rasmussen Reports | R+1.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Pan Atlantic Research | R+0.6 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+0.5 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Ipsos | EVEN | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 6 | Magellan Strategies | EVEN | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 7 | Public Policy Polling | EVEN | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 8 | Frederick Polls | EVEN | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 9 | Maine People's Resource Center | D+0.3 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 10 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | R+10.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 11 | YouGov | D+2.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 12 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+2.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 13 | GQR | D+4.0 | 8.8 | ✗ |
Polls (19)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine People's Resource Center | 2014-11-01 | 906 | D+0.3 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2014-10-26 | 488 | EVEN | 5 |
| Magellan Strategies | 2014-10-23 | 869 | EVEN | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-10-22 | 660 | EVEN | 5 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 1177 | D+2.0 | 7 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2014-10-18 | 639 | R+10.0 | 5 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2014-10-18 | 400 | R+0.6 | 4 |
| Ipsos | 2014-10-09 | 540 | D+6.0 | 11 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-10-08 | 930 | R+1.0 | 4 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2014-10-07 | 600 | D+2.0 | 7 |
| GQR | 2014-10-06 | 605 | D+4.0 | 9 |
| Digital Research | 2014-09-27 | 606 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 1531 | D+2.0 | 7 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2014-09-26 | 400 | R+5.0 | 0 |
| GQR | 2014-09-22 | 605 | D+6.0 | 11 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2014-09-22 | 482 | D+2.0 | 7 |
| Frederick Polls | 2014-09-16 | 400 | EVEN | 5 |
| GQR | 2014-09-09 | 900 | D+2.0 | 7 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-09-08 | 1059 | D+1.0 | 6 |