Actual result
D+5.0
Final polls said
D+6.4
15 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+8.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+5.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+4.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | D+4.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Big Village | D+6.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | New England College Polling Center | D+7.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | American Research Group | D+2.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | SurveyUSA | D+8.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 8 | VotePredictor | D+8.3 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 9 | Rasmussen Reports | D+9.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 10 | YouGov | D+9.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 11 | Suffolk University | D+10.2 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 12 | Vox Populi Polling | R+3.0 | 8.0 | ✗ |
Polls (28)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-11-02 | 1690 | D+5.0 | 0 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2014-10-31 | 747 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| New England College Polling Center | 2014-10-31 | 1526 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-10-29 | 940 | D+9.0 | 4 |
| American Research Group | 2014-10-28 | 600 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Vox Populi Polling | 2014-10-27 | 638 | R+3.0 | 8 |
| New England College Polling Center | 2014-10-24 | 1132 | EVEN | 5 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2014-10-24 | 555 | D+15.0 | 10 |
| American Research Group | 2014-10-21 | 600 | D+10.0 | 5 |
| Big Village | 2014-10-20 | 645 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 1042 | D+9.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-10-20 | 764 | D+10.0 | 5 |
| Suffolk University | 2014-10-18 | 500 | D+10.2 | 5 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | 2014-10-18 | 643 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| New England College Polling Center | 2014-10-16 | 921 | D+8.2 | 3 |
| New England College Polling Center | 2014-10-09 | 1081 | D+5.2 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-06 | 824 | D+8.0 | 3 |
| New England College Polling Center | 2014-10-03 | 1286 | D+10.0 | 5 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2014-10-02 | 532 | D+10.0 | 5 |
| American Research Group | 2014-09-28 | 600 | D+15.0 | 10 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 1260 | D+10.0 | 5 |
| New England College Polling Center | 2014-09-26 | 1331 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| New England College Polling Center | 2014-09-19 | 1494 | D+12.0 | 7 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-09-18 | 652 | D+9.0 | 4 |
| Vox Populi Polling | 2014-09-15 | 550 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| American Research Group | 2014-09-14 | 666 | D+12.0 | 7 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-09-10 | 750 | D+11.0 | 6 |
| New England College Polling Center | 2014-09-10 | 630 | D+15.0 | 10 |