Actual result
R+46.7
Final polls said
R+25.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+32.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global Strategy Group | R+44.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+32.9 | 13.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | R+25.0 | 21.7 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 1314 | R+25.0 | 22 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2014-10-13 | 804 | R+44.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 1502 | R+31.0 | 16 |