Actual result
R+14.8
Final polls said
R+16.2
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+16.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+16.8 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | SoonerPoll.com | R+8.4 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | R+24.0 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Clarity Campaign Labs | R+2.0 | 12.8 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SoonerPoll.com | 2014-10-27 | 949 | R+8.4 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 995 | R+24.0 | 9 |
| SoonerPoll.com | 2014-09-28 | 400 | R+14.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 1244 | R+25.0 | 10 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 2014-09-24 | 841 | R+2.0 | 13 |