Actual result
D+5.8
Final polls said
D+9.0
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+9.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | D+6.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Elway Research | D+7.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+9.6 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | D+10.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elway Research | 2014-10-26 | 403 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-25 | 552 | D+10.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 1421 | D+6.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-18 | 561 | D+13.0 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 1508 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-09-23 | 568 | D+12.0 | 6 |