Actual result
R+10.0
Final polls said
R+5.8
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+8.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+8.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | R+6.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Hellenthal & Associates | R+17.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Alaska Survey Research | D+5.5 | 15.5 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-11-01 | 1052 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2014-10-25 | 330 | D+5.5 | 16 |
| Hellenthal & Associates | 2014-10-18 | 403 | R+17.0 | 7 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-09-20 | 880 | R+15.0 | 5 |