Actual result
R+8.3
Final polls said
D+4.5
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
D+3.5
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global Strategy Group | D+3.0 | 11.3 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+3.5 | 11.8 | ✗ |
| 3 | Hendrix College | D+4.5 | 12.8 | ✗ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hendrix College | 2014-10-15 | 605 | D+4.5 | 13 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2014-09-08 | 410 | D+3.0 | 11 |