Actual result
R+11.2
Final polls said
R+4.7
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+5.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Diamond State Consulting Group | R+7.4 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+5.7 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Hendrix College | R+2.0 | 9.2 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diamond State Consulting Group | 2014-10-21 | 792 | R+7.4 | 4 |
| Hendrix College | 2014-10-15 | 607 | R+2.0 | 9 |