Actual result
R+0.1
Final polls said
D+2.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
D+0.7
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+0.7 | 0.8 | ✗ |
| 2 | RRH Elections | D+2.0 | 2.1 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RRH Elections | 2014-10-22 | 554 | D+2.0 | 2 |