Actual result
D+3.5
Final polls said
D+2.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+3.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+3.7 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+2.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | David Binder Research | EVEN | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 4 | Lake Research Partners | D+15.0 | 11.5 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-18 | 579 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Lake Research Partners | 2014-10-09 | 500 | D+15.0 | 11 |
| David Binder Research | 2014-10-08 | 400 | EVEN | 4 |