Actual result
R+15.7
Final polls said
R+5.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+9.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+9.7 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+5.0 | 10.7 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-18 | 554 | R+5.0 | 11 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-09-05 | 439 | R+19.0 | 3 |