Actual result
R+1.9
Final polls said
D+0.3
3 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+0.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RRH Elections | R+2.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | R+2.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+0.2 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | St. Pete Polls | EVEN | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 5 | Public Policy Polling | D+3.0 | 4.9 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-03-08 | 702 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| RRH Elections | 2014-02-26 | 391 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2014-02-25 | 1269 | EVEN | 2 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 2014-02-17 | 400 | R+2.0 | 0 |