VotePredictor
past elections

Iowa House

Patrick Joseph Murphy (D) vs Rod Blum (R)

Actual result
R+2.3
Final polls said
R+1.5
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+0.6
Winner
Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1Loras College Public Opinion Survey CenterR+1.50.8
2The Polling Company Inc.R+1.01.3
3VotePredictorR+0.61.7

Polls (2)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center2014-10-23282R+1.51
The Polling Company Inc.2014-10-01442R+1.01